Why Home Prices Aren’t Actually Flat, What does this mean for you?

You may have seen headlines recently claiming that home prices are flat. At first glance, that seems simple enough, but the reality is more nuanced. In most places, prices aren’t flat at all, and the national averages don’t tell the full story.

While it’s true that home price growth has moderated from the rapid climb we saw in 2020–2022, the pace of change varies widely depending on the location. Data from ResiClub and Zillow for the 50 largest metros illustrates this clearly: about half of these markets are still seeing prices inch higher, while the other half are experiencing slight declines. The “flat” label simply averages these different trends, but it doesn’t reflect what most markets are actually experiencing.

One major factor behind these differences is inventory. According to Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS), “Price trends are beginning to diverge in markets across the country. Prices are declining in areas with rising inventories while continuing to climb where for-sale homes remain limited.” In other words, local conditions are driving the market. Even in areas seeing declines, many homeowners are still ahead, since prices nationally rose roughly 50% over the past five years.

So, what does this mean for you?

If You’re Buying: Your local market trend will influence how quickly you need to act and how much negotiating power you have. In rising markets, waiting could cost you more. In easing markets, you may be able to negotiate repairs or closing cost help. Understanding local trends puts you in the driver’s seat.

If You’re Selling:

Local trends are crucial for pricing and negotiation strategy. In rising markets, you may not need to compromise much, but in softening markets, proper pricing and flexibility become critical. Homes priced right are still selling, and having a local agent’s expertise ensures you make the right call.

The Real Story Is Local:

National averages provide context, but what’s happening in your neighborhood may look very different. Anthony Smith, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, explains that “local market conditions have become increasingly fragmented…this regional divide is expected to continue influencing price dynamics and sales activity.”

The bottom line:

headlines calling home prices flat are misleading. For a true understanding of your market, connect with a local agent who can guide you based on the latest data and trends.

Questions about buying or selling a home in Beaverton? Contact me! 503.583.3200 or email donna.meeuwsen@exprealty.com.